Foresight Policies
NewPolicy Wind-Tunnel & Cross-Impact Simulator

Stress-test policies before the future does

Foresight Policies helps public administrations, think tanks and regions move from reacting to anticipating. Triage weak signals, generate internally consistent scenarios, wind-tunnel a policy across them and design the regulation that fits. Free, in your browser, and private by default.

Open the wind-tunnel See how it works
modules, signal to regulation
4
lenses per scenario
7
bytes of your work uploaded
0
The problem

Why foresight so rarely changes policy

Futures work is seldom given the evidential weight of econometric models or randomised trials. It only counts as usable evidence once it is robust, tailored, co-created and wired into decision routines, yet those qualities usually grow only after foresight already has a seat at the table.

Breaking that loop takes work on two sides at once, as the OECD and public-administration research describe:

  • Agency. Futures literacy for people (reasoning under deep uncertainty, resisting present bias) and for institutions (routines that let forward-looking intelligence shape budgets).
  • An authorising environment. Mandates, statutory duties and political demand that protect long-term analysis from the pressure of the day.

How to influence the policies of the future →

The evidential lock-in loop Foresight gains evidential standing only when it is robust, tailored, co-created and wired into routines, but those four qualities develop only after it has standing. Mandates and futures literacy break into the loop. Break in here: mandate + literacy Robust methodologically sound Tailored to the policy context Co-created with those affected Wired in to decision routines Evidential standing
The Policy Wind-Tunnel

From weak signal to stress-tested policy, in four modules

Introductory primers are easy to read but shallow; academic scenario software is rigorous but hard to use. The wind-tunnel combines the scaffolding of the Horizons Foresight Method, the discipline of the Horizon Loop, the rigour of Cross-Impact Balance analysis and the rubrics of the WRR, the Welsh well-being duty and Nesta, right in your browser.

  1. 1

    Horizon Loop & signal triage

    Anchor scanning on a real dependency. Log a signal in two minutes, prove its “if this scaled” mechanism, score six filters and cluster only independent signals.

    Horizon Loop · Policy Horizons Canada
  2. 2

    Cross-impact scenarios

    Choose 6 to 10 descriptors, score how each state promotes or inhibits the others, and let the solver keep only internally consistent futures.

    Cross-Impact Balance · Weimer-Jehle
  3. 3

    Policy wind-tunnel & premortem

    Run a policy through each future on the WRR triad and the well-being compass. See which assumptions break and which signposts to watch.

    WRR Report 104 · Wales IIA
  4. 4

    Cynefin & anticipatory regulation

    Classify the problem, then configure a sandbox charter, a citizen deliberation protocol or a verification blueprint that fits it.

    Cynefin · Nesta · EU AI Act sandboxes
Open the wind-tunnel Read the methods
The futures cone From today, possible futures widen into plausible and probable futures. A policy pathway steers away from the probable future towards a preferable one, across the 2030, 2040 and 2050 horizons. Today 2030 2040 2050 Preferable Probable Plausible Possible
Many futures, not one forecast

Plan for the plausible, steer for the preferable

Strategic foresight in the European Commission and OECD distinguishes four classes of futures. Most plans test only one of them.

  • PossibleEverything that could conceivably happen.
  • PlausibleWhat could happen given what we know about how systems work. This is where the wind-tunnel tests.
  • ProbableWhat trend extrapolation says is likely: the rear-view mirror.
  • PreferableThe futures a society chooses to build. Public, dated goals live on Aspiration Platform; bring one into the wind-tunnel and test the policy meant to reach it.
One family, one flow

From a signal someone notices to a change that lasts

Foresight Policies is the testing ground in a family of open platforms. Each one does one job well, and they hand work to each other.

  1. NoticeForesight Influencers

    Signals and solutions from voices in every region.

  2. AspireAspiration Platform

    Dated public goals, each with a source and a contact.

  3. TestForesight Policies

    Stress-test the policies meant to get there. You are here.

  4. TransitionForesight Transitions

    Interim management and advice to carry change through.

  5. InvestForesight Properties

    Assets and ventures positioned for the futures you expect.

Evidence underneath: Data Exchange Platform helps you find, share and reuse the data behind your indicators and signposts.

Horizon 2026–2050

What the next 25 years ask of policy

Recent government foresight points to a shift from defensive resilience to proactive leverage, and to a growing tension between trust, scarcity and the interests of generations not yet born.

37%

expect AI to help solve major scientific challenges

Dutch public optimism about AI fell sharply, while overall trust in science held at 7.4 out of 10.

Source: Rathenau Instituut, 2026
20%+ of GDP

projected Dutch healthcare spending by 2060

Up from 12.7% in 2015. Efficiency alone cannot close the gap, so explicit prioritisation by health gain moves centre stage.

Source: WRR Report 104
<90%

childhood vaccination coverage in the Netherlands

Below the critical threshold for the first time in decades, as biological risks converge with AI-accelerated bioinformatics.

Source: NCTV Trend Analysis National Security 2024
14% of EU GDP

spent through public procurement each year

A lever to catalyse deep-tech start-ups in quantum and photonics, alongside a single start-up and bankruptcy regime.

Source: Centre for Future Generations
70%

of EU weaponry made and bought in the EU

A hard industrial target in Horizon 2040 blueprints: from the passive “Brussels effect” to proactive geopolitical leverage.

Source: Centre for Future Generations
2028

review of the UN Declaration on Future Generations

With the proposed Special Envoy shelved, the Declaration risks becoming an orphan. Courts and coalitions may fill the gap.

Source: Stimson Center

Explore Horizon 2026–2050

Built on public-sector practice

Methods proven by governments that look ahead

Every module encodes a published method from foresight units in Canada, Singapore, the EU, the Netherlands, Wales and the UK. We link to the sources so you can check them.

Anticipatory capacity check

Twelve questions on strategic, institutional, democratic and adaptive capacity. A profile and next steps in five minutes.

Take the check →

Influence the policies of the future

Four leverage points open to think tanks, regions and civil society, with examples from Wales, Finland, the EU and the Netherlands.

See the leverage points →

Who's who in policy foresight

From the European Commission and OECD to Policy Horizons Canada, Singapore's CSF, the WRR and Nesta.

Map the ecosystem →
Wind-tunnel sessions

Bring your team, leave with a stress-tested policy

The tool is free to use on your own. For ministries, regions, agencies and think tanks we also facilitate sessions that use the same four modules with your own policy and your own people.

90 minutes

Signal sprint

Anchor scanning on one real dependency, log and cluster signals together, and agree who owns the emerging risk theme.

  • Anchor dependency and baseline assumption
  • 10 to 20 triaged signals
  • A named owner and a signpost watch-list
Request a signal sprint
Half a day

Policy wind-tunnel

Build a cross-impact scenario set with your experts, run your policy through it and hold a structured premortem.

  • Consistent scenarios for your domain
  • Scores on seven lenses per scenario
  • Revised assumptions and early-warning signposts
Request a wind-tunnel
Two days

Anticipatory regulation studio

Diagnose the problem and design the instrument: a sandbox charter, a citizen deliberation protocol or a verification blueprint.

  • Cynefin diagnosis with stakeholders
  • Draft charter or protocol
  • Evidence ready for an impact assessment or call for evidence
Request a studio
The family

Part of the Summanity and Humanity Solutions family

SignalsForesight InfluencersSignals worth hearing, solutions worth spreading. AspirationsAspiration PlatformAn open directory of public, dated aspirations. TransitionsForesight TransitionsInterim management, advice and investment for volatile times. InvestmentsForesight PropertiesProperties for resilient and joyful futures. DataData Exchange PlatformFind, share and reuse data for the changes that matter. CommunitySummanitySum Salons on Summanitism and working with AI.

Have a policy you want to test against the future?

Open the wind-tunnel and try it now. Your work stays in your browser unless you choose to export it.

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