How to influence the policies of the future

Good foresight does not automatically change policy. Here is why it stays on the sidelines, what it takes to move it to the centre, and four leverage points open to anyone outside the cabinet room.

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The problem

The evidential lock-in

In most bureaucracies, futures analysis does not carry the evidential weight of econometric models or randomised trials.

Foresight is only treated as usable evidence when it is methodologically robust, tailored to the policy context, co-created with those affected and wired into decision routines. Yet those four qualities usually develop only after foresight has already won a seat in decision-making. The result is a circular trap, and periodic scenario workshops do not break it on their own.

OECD · Tõnurist, Hanson and colleagues

Agency and an authorising environment

Agency: futures literacy

Cognitive: the individual ability to reason under deep uncertainty, resist present bias and hold several contradictory futures in mind.

Institutional: the routines, cultures and structures through which forward-looking intelligence actually shapes how resources are allocated.

An authorising environment

High-level political demand and institutional mandates that protect long-term analysis from the pressure of the day, and give civil servants permission to explore provocative questions that challenge policy orthodoxy.

Five systemic pillars

What durable anticipatory capacity is built on

Demand and mandateFinland's government submits a Report on the Future to Parliament's Committee for the Future once per electoral term.
Capabilities and skillsTraining ecosystems such as Singapore's FutureCraft and Canada Beyond 150.
Institutional arrangementsStructures with legitimacy across silos, such as the EU network of “Ministers for the Future”.
EmbeddednessForesight in impact assessment and ex-post evaluation, not only agenda-setting: are laws still fit for purpose?
Feedback and learningTracking how foresight outputs change budgets and legislation, and refining methods.

Four leverage points

Where think tanks, regions and civil society can act

Statutory duties and integrated impact assessments

Laws that oblige administrations to justify long-term trade-offs change incentives before sunk costs build up.

ExampleThe Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act requires public bodies to pursue economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being equally, overseen by an independent commissioner, with one integrated impact assessment at the start of policy design.

Calls for evidence and narrative framing

Supranational agendas are shaped through open, participatory processes. Bring an operational framework, not just an opinion.

ExampleThe Commission's annual Strategic Foresight Report draws on ESPAS, the Joint Research Centre, member states and open calls for evidence. For 2026, the Centre for Future Generations submitted frameworks on hardware-enabled verification and pooled compute.

Deliberation paired with budget reform

Where scarcity forces normative choices, informed citizen deliberation makes sharper choices legitimate, and hard budget rules make them happen.

ExampleWRR Report 104 combined citizen panels on care priorities with budgeting under fiscal ceilings, informing the Dutch Appropriate Care Framework and the Integrated Care Agreement.

Anticipatory regulation and sandboxes

In fast-scaling technologies, iterative regulation solves the pacing problem: test under supervision, learn, then set the rules.

ExampleNesta's principles, the UK FCA fintech sandbox, the MHRA AI Airlock, Accelerate Estonia and the regulatory sandboxes of the EU AI Act.

Rathenau Instituut, 2026

Trust is elastic, and it differs by topic

For climate change and vaccination, people's trust in scientific evidence tracks how important they think the topic is. For inequality and discrimination, it tracks whether they think science should study the issue at all. In health, high importance (90%) sits next to substantial distrust (nearly a third) driven by suspicion of commercial motives.

The practical lesson: in health and AI, foresight cannot lean on technocratic authority. Build transparent deliberation into the process, which is exactly what Module 4 prescribes when trust is low.

Generate a deliberation protocol

Putting it together

A six-step playbook, with the family

NoticeCollect early signals from voices in every region on Foresight Influencers, then triage them in Module 1.
Anchor in public goalsFind the dated commitments your policy serves on Aspiration Platform, each with a source and a contact.
Stress-testBuild consistent scenarios and wind-tunnel the policy in Modules 2 and 3.
Design the instrumentMatch the problem's domain to a sandbox, a deliberation or a verification design in Module 4.
Submit the evidenceUse the downloadable report in a call for evidence, an impact assessment or a parliamentary hearing.
Carry it throughGet interim capacity and transition support from Foresight Transitions, and data for your signposts from the Data Exchange Platform.

Sources

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